James R. Baird · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Baird is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Baird at 95.2¢ against Cox's 6¢, up 2.9¢ since August 3. Baird leads 17.5 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Baird · Republican contract

95.2¢

▲ 2.9¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on James R. Baird by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 95.5¢ · low 92.3¢Oct 12

James R. BairdRepublican · incumbent

95.2¢

Drew CoxDemocratic

6.0¢

7,409 traded · 4,569 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Baird v Cox

Metric by metric

Baird

Cox

95.2¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

6.0¢

$358.3K

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$20.4K

$91.6K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$6.9K

U.S. Representativesince 2019

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Indiana 4th District

Prior result

R+33.9

2024 general election, won by James R. Baird.

Fundraising

17.5 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.