Paul Nolley
IL-16What the Signal reads
Safe R
Nolley is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Nolley at 6.1¢ against LaHood's 95.2¢, down 4.9¢ since August 3. LaHood leads 8.8 to 1 in money raised.
The market
Nolley · Democratic contract
6.1¢
▼ 4.9¢since August 3
This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Paul Nolley by name.
32,599 traded · 7,469 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Nolley v LaHood
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Illinois 16th DistrictPrior result
LaHood +99.8
LaHood won 99.9% to 0.1% over Scott Summers (Green) (2024).
Fundraising
8.8 to 1
Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.