Elections Intelligence

Patty Garcia

IL-4U.S. House H architectural icon
CHALLENGER Likely D to Safe D Strong favorite
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Garcia is the Democratic nominee for an open seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Garcia at 97.1¢ against Castillo's 3.5¢, up 2.6¢ since August 3. The polling average has Garcia ahead by 19 points.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Garcia · Democratic contract
97.1¢
▲ 2.6¢since August 3
Aug 342 daily readings · high 99.9¢ · low 94.5¢Oct 12
Patty GarciaDemocratic
97.1¢
Lupe CastilloRepublican
3.5¢
independent lineNo candidate is named on this contract.
6.0¢
independent lineNo candidate is named on this contract.
1.0¢

18,504 traded · 11,224 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Garcia v Castillo

Metric by metric
Garcia
Castillo
97.1¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
3.5¢
$358.7K
RaisedFEC, through June 30
No total for Lupe Castillo: no report covering this period is on file with the Federal Election Commission.
$185.5K
Cash on handFEC, through June 30
—
34%
Latest pollThe Bullfinch Group · Aug 3
15%
No office on file
Holds now
No office on file

The 2026 race

Illinois 4th District
Latest poll
D+19

The Bullfinch Group, August 3.

Prior result
D+40.2

2024 general election, won by Chuy García.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.