Jill N. Tokuda · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Tokuda is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Tokuda at 97.2¢ against Awa's 5.2¢, up 1.9¢ since August 3. Tokuda leads 6.6 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Tokuda · Democratic contract

97.2¢

▲ 1.9¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Jill N. Tokuda by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 98¢ · low 95¢Oct 12

Jill N. TokudaDemocratic · incumbent

97.2¢

Brenton AwaRepublican

5.2¢

30,746 traded · 26,249 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Tokuda v Awa

Metric by metric

Tokuda

Awa

97.2¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

5.2¢

$820.7K

RaisedFEC, through July 19

$122.6K

$570.4K

Cash on handFEC, through July 19

$16.1K

U.S. Representativesince 2023

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Hawaii 2nd District

Prior result

D+36.3

2024 general election, won by Jill N. Tokuda.

Fundraising

6.6 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 19.