Jim Schwartzel · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Schwartzel is the Republican nominee for an open seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Schwartzel at 95.9¢ against Arias's 5.5¢, up 3.4¢ since August 3. Schwartzel leads 35.7 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Schwartzel · Republican contract

95.9¢

▲ 3.4¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Jim Schwartzel by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 96.5¢ · low 90.5¢Oct 12

Jim SchwartzelRepublican

95.9¢

Victor AriasDemocratic

5.5¢

1,804 traded · 976 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Schwartzel v Arias

Metric by metric

Schwartzel

Arias

95.9¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

5.5¢

$2.07M

RaisedFEC, through July 29 and September 30

$57.8K

$181.9K

Cash on handFEC, through July 29 and September 30

$19.1K

No office on file

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Florida 19th District

Prior result

R+32.6

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Byron Donalds.

Fundraising

35.7 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through September 30.