Victor Arias · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Arias is the Democratic nominee for an open seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Arias at 5.5¢ against Schwartzel's 95.9¢, down 2.9¢ since August 3. Schwartzel leads 35.7 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Arias · Democratic contract

5.5¢

▼ 2.9¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Victor Arias by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 10¢ · low 5.5¢Oct 12

Victor AriasDemocratic

5.5¢

Jim SchwartzelRepublican

95.9¢

1,804 traded · 976 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Arias v Schwartzel

Metric by metric

Arias

Schwartzel

5.5¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

95.9¢

$57.8K

RaisedFEC, through July 29 and September 30

$2.07M

$19.1K

Cash on handFEC, through July 29 and September 30

$181.9K

No office on file

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Florida 19th District

Prior result

R+32.6

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Byron Donalds.

Fundraising

35.7 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through September 30.