W. Gregory Steube · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Steube is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Steube at 97.8¢ against Montavon's 5.7¢, up 4.5¢ since August 3. Steube leads 13.8 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Steube · Republican contract

97.8¢

▲ 4.5¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on W. Gregory Steube by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 97.9¢ · low 93.3¢Oct 12

W. Gregory SteubeRepublican · incumbent

97.8¢

Matthew MontavonDemocratic

5.7¢

4,845 traded · 2,494 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Steube v Montavon

Metric by metric

Steube

Montavon

97.8¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

5.7¢

$1.34M

RaisedFEC, through July 29

$96.5K

$2.08M

Cash on handFEC, through July 29

$23.9K

U.S. Representativesince 2019

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Florida 17th District

Prior result

R+27.8

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by W. Gregory Steube.

Fundraising

13.8 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 29.

THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWNR+23.9 → R+22.1

Florida redrew its congressional map in a 2026 special session. Gov. Ron DeSantis signed the new plan (HB 1-D) on May 4, 2026; it changed 21 of the state's 28 districts. Its partisan lean barely changes (Trump +23.9 to Trump +22.1 in the 2024 presidential vote).

The record this is read from ↗