Matthew Montavon · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Montavon is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Montavon at 5.7¢ against Steube's 97.8¢, down 1.9¢ since August 3. Steube leads 13.8 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Montavon · Democratic contract

5.7¢

▼ 1.9¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Matthew Montavon by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 9.8¢ · low 4.6¢Oct 12

Matthew MontavonDemocratic

5.7¢

W. Gregory SteubeRepublican · incumbent

97.8¢

4,845 traded · 2,494 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Montavon v Steube

Metric by metric

Montavon

Steube

5.7¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

97.8¢

$96.5K

RaisedFEC, through July 29

$1.34M

$23.9K

Cash on handFEC, through July 29

$2.08M

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2019

The 2026 race

Florida 17th District

Prior result

R+27.8

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by W. Gregory Steube.

Fundraising

13.8 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 29.