Kathy Castor
FL-14What the Signal reads
Castor is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Lean D. The market has Castor at 67¢ against Beltran's 32¢, up 5¢ since August 3. The polling average has Castor ahead by 8.7 points, and Castor leads 1.1 to 1 in money raised.
The market
This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Kathy Castor by name.
293,075 traded · 183,816 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Castor v Beltran
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Florida 14th DistrictSt. Pete Polls, July 15.
2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Kathy Castor.
Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 29.
THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWND+7.7 → R+10.5
Florida redrew its congressional map in a 2026 special session. Gov. Ron DeSantis signed the new plan (HB 1-D) on May 4, 2026; it changed 21 of the state's 28 districts. It loses St. Petersburg and pairs Tampa-area territory with areas to the east and south. The new lines flip the district, going from Harris +7.7 to Trump +10.5 in the 2024 presidential vote.