Mike Beltran

FL-14

CHALLENGER Toss-up to Lean D Competitive underdog

What the Signal reads

Lean D

Beltran is the Republican challenger for a seat the Signal rates Lean D. The market has Beltran at 32¢ against Castor's 67¢, down 7¢ since August 3. The polling average has Castor ahead by 8.7 points, and Castor leads 1.1 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Beltran · Republican contract

32.0¢

▼ 7.0¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Mike Beltran by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 46¢ · low 30¢Oct 12

Mike BeltranRepublican

32.0¢

Kathy CastorDemocratic · incumbent

67.0¢

293,075 traded · 183,816 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Beltran v Castor

Metric by metric

Beltran

Castor

32.0¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

67.0¢

$2.12M

RaisedFEC, through July 29

$2.34M

$1.94M

Cash on handFEC, through July 29

$1.74M

37.5%

Latest pollSt. Pete Polls · Jul 15

46.2%

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2007

The 2026 race

Florida 14th District

Latest poll

D+8.7

St. Pete Polls, July 15.

Prior result

D+15.4

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Kathy Castor.

Fundraising

1.1 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 29.