Elections Intelligence

Jennifer Jenkins

FL-8U.S. House H architectural icon
CHALLENGER Likely R Underdog
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Likely R

Jenkins is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Likely R. The market has Jenkins at 6.6¢ against Haridopolos's 94.4¢, down 4.4¢ since August 3. The polling average has Haridopolos ahead by 9.7 points, and Haridopolos leads 2.5 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Jenkins · Democratic contract
6.6¢
▼ 4.4¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Jennifer Jenkins by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 11¢ · low 3.9¢Oct 12
Jennifer JenkinsDemocratic
6.6¢
Mike HaridopolosRepublican · incumbent
94.4¢

9,034 traded · 4,882 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Jenkins v Haridopolos

Metric by metric
Jenkins
Haridopolos
6.6¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
94.4¢
$725.7K
RaisedFEC, through July 29
$1.82M
$108.1K
Cash on handFEC, through July 29
$1.20M
42%
Latest pollInquire, R-leaning firm · Jul 29
51%
No office on file
Holds now
U.S. Representativesince 2025

The 2026 race

Florida 8th District
Polling average
R+9.7

Average of 2 pollsters, July 18 to July 29.

Prior result
R+24.5

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Mike Haridopolos.

Fundraising
2.5 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 29.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.