Jeff Belle · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Belle is the Republican challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Belle at 3.8¢ against Vargas's 97.1¢, down 1.4¢ since August 3. Vargas leads 22.2 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Belle · Republican contract

3.8¢

▼ 1.4¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Jeff Belle by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 6¢ · low 3.8¢Oct 12

Jeff BelleRepublican

3.8¢

Juan VargasDemocratic · incumbent

97.1¢

15,004 traded · 3,144 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Belle v Vargas

Metric by metric

Belle

Vargas

3.8¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

97.1¢

$25.5K

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$568.5K

$1.4K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$163.7K

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2013

The 2026 race

California 52nd District

Prior result

D+32.6

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Juan Vargas.

Fundraising

22.2 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.