Sara Jacobs · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Jacobs is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Jacobs at 99.3¢ against Cabrera's 3.5¢, up 1.8¢ since August 3.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Jacobs · Democratic contract

99.3¢

▲ 1.8¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Sara Jacobs by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 99.8¢ · low 97.5¢Oct 12

Sara JacobsDemocratic · incumbent

99.3¢

Ricardo CabreraRepublican

3.5¢

985 traded · 859 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Jacobs v Cabrera

Metric by metric

Jacobs

Cabrera

99.3¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

3.5¢

$1.64M

RaisedFEC, through June 30

No total for Ricardo Cabrera: no report covering this period is on file with the Federal Election Commission.

$269.5K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

—

U.S. Representativesince 2021

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

California 51st District

Prior result

D+21.4

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Sara Jacobs.

THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWND+23.5 → D+18.3

California voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. It becomes somewhat less Democratic, going from Harris +23.5 to Harris +18.3 in the 2024 presidential vote.

The record this is read from ↗