J. Luis Correa · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Correa is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Correa at 97.8¢ against Pan's 3.6¢, up 10.8¢ since August 3. Correa leads 15.1 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Correa · Democratic contract

97.8¢

▲ 10.8¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on J. Luis Correa by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 98.9¢ · low 87¢Oct 12

J. Luis CorreaDemocratic · incumbent

97.8¢

David PanRepublican

3.6¢

1,167 traded · 1,159 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Correa v Pan

Metric by metric

Correa

Pan

97.8¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

3.6¢

$1.23M

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$80.7K

$2.48M

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$6.2K

U.S. Representativesince 2017

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

California 46th District

Prior result

D+26.9

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by J. Luis Correa.

Fundraising

15.1 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.

THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWND+17.7 → D+16.2

California voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. Its partisan lean barely changes (Harris +17.7 to Harris +16.2 in the 2024 presidential vote).

The record this is read from ↗