Every candidate on the November ballot is a Republican, so the seat cannot change party. The FTP Race Signal reads the seat; the Kalshi figure is Calvert's own contract.
Safe R
Ken Calvert is a sitting U.S. Representative for California's 41st district, running in California's 40th district, a seat the band rates Safe R. California's 41st, which they hold, was redrawn 20.1 points toward the Democrats; the market prices their contract at 72.0¢ against Kim's 33.0¢, up 3.0¢ across 25 observation days; and they are outraised 1.4:1 by Young Kim.
72.0¢
▲ 3.0¢
since Aug 3
DEPTH ON THIS BOOK 1,060 traded · 582 open
Sides may not sum to 100. Prices are the yes ask. checked 1:29 AM ET
72.0¢
33.0¢
$6.14M
1.4:1 Young Kim's advantage
$8.84M
U.S. Representative
California's 41st district · since 2025 · a different seat from the one they are running in
U.S. Representative
California's 40th district · since 2025 · defending it
THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWN R+5.9 → D+14.2
The Legislature enacted the congressional map in AB 604, chaptered 21 August 2025 as Chapter 96, Statutes of 2025, and voters authorized its use through ACA 8, Proposition 50, on 4 November 2025; it applies to the 2026, 2028 and 2030 congressional elections.