Young Kim
CA-40Every candidate on the November ballot is a Republican, so the seat cannot change party. The FTP Race Signal reads the seat; the Kalshi figure is Kim's own contract.
What the Signal reads
Kim is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Kim at 42¢ against Calvert's 62¢, up 10¢ since August 3. Kim leads 1.4 to 1 in money raised.
The market
13,399 traded · 9,133 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Kim v Calvert
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
California 40th DistrictGrassroots Targ, Kim sponsor, September 9.
2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Young Kim.
Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.
THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWNR+2.3 → R+12.2
California voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. Just over half of the new district's population (51%) comes from the old 41st. The rest comes from parts of the old 40th and 48th. It becomes somewhat more Republican, going from Trump +2.3 to Trump +12.2 in the 2024 presidential vote.