Bob Smith · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Smith is the Republican challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Smith at 3.4¢ against Carbajal's 98.5¢, up 0.2¢ since August 3. Carbajal leads 8.1 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Smith · Republican contract

3.4¢

▲ 0.2¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Bob Smith by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 8.8¢ · low 2.9¢Oct 12

Bob SmithRepublican

3.4¢

Salud O. CarbajalDemocratic · incumbent

98.5¢

13,110 traded · 5,105 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Smith v Carbajal

Metric by metric

Smith

Carbajal

3.4¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

98.5¢

$203.3K

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$1.65M

$47.1K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$3.38M

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2017

The 2026 race

California 24th District

Prior result

D+25.4

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Salud O. Carbajal.

Fundraising

8.1 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.