Salud O. Carbajal · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Carbajal is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Carbajal at 98.5¢ against Smith's 3.4¢, up 0.9¢ since August 3. Carbajal leads 8.1 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Carbajal · Democratic contract

98.5¢

▲ 0.9¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Salud O. Carbajal by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 98.9¢ · low 95.9¢Oct 12

Salud O. CarbajalDemocratic · incumbent

98.5¢

Bob SmithRepublican

3.4¢

13,110 traded · 5,105 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Carbajal v Smith

Metric by metric

Carbajal

Smith

98.5¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

3.4¢

$1.65M

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$203.3K

$3.38M

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$47.1K

U.S. Representativesince 2017

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

California 24th District

Prior result

D+25.4

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Salud O. Carbajal.

Fundraising

8.1 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.

THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWND+25.0 → D+24.9

California voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. Its partisan lean barely changes (Harris +25 to Harris +24.9 in the 2024 presidential vote).

The record this is read from ↗