Peter Sundin Soulé · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Soulé is the Republican challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Soulé at 3.4¢ against Liccardo's 98.4¢, down 1.7¢ since August 3. Liccardo leads 8723.2 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Soulé · Republican contract

3.4¢

▼ 1.7¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Peter Sundin Soulé by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 5.4¢ · low 2.9¢Oct 12

Peter Sundin SouléRepublican

3.4¢

Sam T. LiccardoDemocratic · incumbent

98.4¢

10,076 traded · 3,974 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Soulé v Liccardo

Metric by metric

Soulé

Liccardo

3.4¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

98.4¢

$400

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$3.49M

$400

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$2.15M

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2025

The 2026 race

California 16th District

Prior result

58.2 to 41.8

Liccardo won 58.2% to 41.8% over another Democrat (2024).

Fundraising

8723.2 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.