Sam T. Liccardo · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Liccardo is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Liccardo at 98.4¢ against Soulé's 3.4¢, up 4.2¢ since August 3. Liccardo leads 8723.2 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Liccardo · Democratic contract

98.4¢

▲ 4.2¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Sam T. Liccardo by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 99.9¢ · low 94.2¢Oct 12

Sam T. LiccardoDemocratic · incumbent

98.4¢

Peter Sundin SouléRepublican

3.4¢

10,076 traded · 3,974 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Liccardo v Soulé

Metric by metric

Liccardo

Soulé

98.4¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

3.4¢

$3.49M

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$400

$2.15M

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$400

U.S. Representativesince 2025

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

California 16th District

Prior result

58.2 to 41.8

Liccardo won 58.2% to 41.8% over another Democrat (2024).

Fundraising

8723.2 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.

THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWND+48.5 → D+48.1

California voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. Its partisan lean barely changes (Harris +48.5 to Harris +48.1 in the 2024 presidential vote).

The record this is read from ↗