Scott Wiener
CA-11Every candidate on the November ballot is a Democrat, so the seat cannot change party. The FTP Race Signal reads the seat; the Kalshi figure is Wiener's own contract.
What the Signal reads
Safe D
Wiener is the Democratic nominee for an open seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Wiener at 80¢ against Chan's 22¢, up 15¢ since August 3. Wiener leads 4.1 to 1 in money raised.
The market
Wiener · Democratic contract
80.0¢
▲ 15.0¢since August 3
160,785 traded · 85,482 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Wiener v Chan
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
California 11th DistrictLatest poll
Wiener +6
Tavern Res., Wiener sponsor, September 17.
Prior result
D+62.0
2024 general election, won by Nancy Pelosi.
Fundraising
4.1 to 1
Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.