Connie Chan

CA-11

CHALLENGER Safe DThe seat Strong favorite

Every candidate on the November ballot is a Democrat, so the seat cannot change party. The FTP Race Signal reads the seat; the Kalshi figure is Chan's own contract.

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Chan is the Democratic nominee for an open seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Chan at 22¢ against Wiener's 80¢, down 16¢ since August 3. Wiener leads 4.1 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Chan · Democratic contract

22.0¢

▼ 16.0¢since August 3

Aug 342 daily readings · high 38¢ · low 22¢Oct 12

Connie ChanDemocratic

22.0¢

Scott WienerDemocratic

80.0¢

160,785 traded · 85,482 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Chan v Wiener

Metric by metric

Chan

Wiener

22.0¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

80.0¢

$1.09M

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$4.56M

$362.1K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$1.23M

47%

Latest pollTavern Res., Wiener sponsor · Sep 17

53%

No office on file

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

California 11th District

Latest poll

Wiener +6

Tavern Res., Wiener sponsor, September 17.

Prior result

D+62.0

2024 general election, won by Nancy Pelosi.

Fundraising

4.1 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.