Josh Harder
CA-9What the Signal reads
Harder is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Harder at 98.8¢ against McBride's 2.1¢, up 6.2¢ since August 3. Harder leads 135.2 to 1 in money raised.
The market
This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Josh Harder by name.
5,147 traded · 3,602 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Harder v McBride
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
California 9th District2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Josh Harder.
Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.
THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWNR+1.8 → D+11.4
California voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. It gives up Central Valley territory and adds areas toward the East Bay. The new lines flip the district, going from Trump +1.8 to Harris +11.4 in the 2024 presidential vote.