John Garamendi
CA-8What the Signal reads
Garamendi is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Garamendi at 98.9¢ against Recile's 4¢, up 8.2¢ since August 3. Garamendi leads 57 to 1 in money raised.
The market
This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on John Garamendi by name.
2,290 traded · 2,074 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Garamendi v Recile
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
California 8th District2024 general election · previous district lines, won by John Garamendi.
Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.
THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWND+43.6 → D+34.1
California voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. It becomes somewhat less Democratic, going from Harris +43.6 to Harris +34.1 in the 2024 presidential vote.