Eric Jones
CA-4Every candidate on the November ballot is a Democrat, so the seat cannot change party. The FTP Race Signal reads the seat; the Kalshi figure is Jones's own contract.
What the Signal reads
Safe D
Jones is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Jones at 22¢ against Thompson's 80¢, unchanged since August 3. Jones leads 1.9 to 1 in money raised.
The market
Jones · Democratic contract
22.0¢
Unchangedsince August 3
43,818 traded · 19,025 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Jones v Thompson
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
California 4th DistrictPrior result
D+33.0
2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Mike Thompson.
Fundraising
1.9 to 1
Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.