Mike Thompson
CA-4Every candidate on the November ballot is a Democrat, so the seat cannot change party. The FTP Race Signal reads the seat; the Kalshi figure is Thompson's own contract.
What the Signal reads
Thompson is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Thompson at 80¢ against Jones's 22¢, up 2¢ since August 3. Jones leads 1.9 to 1 in money raised.
The market
43,818 traded · 19,025 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Thompson v Jones
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
California 4th District2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Mike Thompson.
Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.
THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWND+31.2 → D+14.5
California voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. It becomes much less Democratic, going from Harris +31.2 to Harris +14.5 in the 2024 presidential vote.