Mike McGuire · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

McGuire is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has McGuire at 95.9¢ against Gallagher's 6.6¢, down 1¢ since August 3. McGuire leads 1.2 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

McGuire · Democratic contract

95.9¢

▼ 1.0¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Mike McGuire by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 99.9¢ · low 93.4¢Oct 12

Mike McGuireDemocratic

95.9¢

James GallagherRepublican · incumbent

6.6¢

13,029 traded · 10,716 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

McGuire v Gallagher

Metric by metric

McGuire

Gallagher

95.9¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

6.6¢

$1.83M

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$1.49M

$152.6K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$332.9K

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2026

The 2026 race

California 1st District

Prior result

R+30.6

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Doug LaMalfa.

Fundraising

1.2 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.