James Gallagher · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Gallagher is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Gallagher at 6.6¢ against McGuire's 95.9¢, up 2.6¢ since August 3. McGuire leads 1.2 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Gallagher · Republican contract

6.6¢

▲ 2.6¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on James Gallagher by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 9¢ · low 4¢Oct 12

James GallagherRepublican · incumbent

6.6¢

Mike McGuireDemocratic

95.9¢

13,029 traded · 10,716 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Gallagher v McGuire

Metric by metric

Gallagher

McGuire

6.6¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

95.9¢

$1.49M

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$1.83M

$332.9K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$152.6K

U.S. Representativesince 2026

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

California 1st District

Prior result

R+30.6

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Doug LaMalfa.

Fundraising

1.2 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.