Danielle “Dani” Sterbinsky · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Sterbinsky is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Sterbinsky at 4.6¢ against Gosar's 96.7¢, down 1.3¢ since August 3. Gosar leads 1.6 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Sterbinsky · Democratic contract

4.6¢

▼ 1.3¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Danielle “Dani” Sterbinsky by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 10¢ · low 4.6¢Oct 12

Danielle “Dani” SterbinskyDemocratic

4.6¢

Paul A. GosarRepublican · incumbent

96.7¢

4,068 traded · 2,957 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Sterbinsky v Gosar

Metric by metric

Sterbinsky

Gosar

4.6¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

96.7¢

$354.4K

RaisedFEC, through July 1

$580.0K

$25.7K

Cash on handFEC, through July 1

$303.2K

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2011

The 2026 race

Arizona 9th District

Prior result

R+30.6

2024 general election, won by Paul A. Gosar.

Fundraising

1.6 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 1.