Paul A. Gosar · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Gosar is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Gosar at 96.7¢ against Sterbinsky's 4.6¢, up 5.3¢ since August 3. Gosar leads 1.6 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Gosar · Republican contract

96.7¢

▲ 5.3¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Paul A. Gosar by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 97¢ · low 91.4¢Oct 12

Paul A. GosarRepublican · incumbent

96.7¢

Danielle “Dani” SterbinskyDemocratic

4.6¢

4,068 traded · 2,957 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Gosar v Sterbinsky

Metric by metric

Gosar

Sterbinsky

96.7¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

4.6¢

$580.0K

RaisedFEC, through July 1

$354.4K

$303.2K

Cash on handFEC, through July 1

$25.7K

U.S. Representativesince 2011

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Arizona 9th District

Prior result

R+30.6

2024 general election, won by Paul A. Gosar.

Fundraising

1.6 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 1.