Elections Intelligence

Eric Hafner

AK-ALU.S. House H architectural icon
CHALLENGER Likely RThe seat Underdog
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Likely R

Hafner is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Likely R. The market prices a Democratic win of the seat, a flip from Republican, at 0.9¢, a price on the party and not on Hafner. The polling average has Begich ahead by 8.5 points, and Begich leads 4 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

No price is quoted on this candidate: no contract on this candidate in the market.

Bill Hillindependent
12.0¢
Republican lineNo candidate is named on this contract.
88.0¢
Democratic lineNo candidate is named on this contract.
0.9¢
Eric HafnerDemocratic
no contract on this candidate in the market
Nicholas J. Begich IIIRepublican
no contract on this candidate in the market

67,909 traded · 27,032 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Hafner v Hill

Metric by metric
Hafner
Hill
No contract on Eric Hafner in this market.
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
12.0¢
No total for Eric Hafner: no report covering this period is on file with the Federal Election Commission.
RaisedFEC, through July 29
$1.34M
—
Cash on handFEC, through July 29
$515.9K
No office on file
Holds now
No office on file

The 2026 race

Alaska At-Large District
Polling average
Begich +8.5

Average of 3 pollsters, September 11 to October 3.

Prior result
R+2.4

2024 general election, won by Nicholas J. Begich III.

Fundraising
4 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 29.

The general election, by ranked-choice vote, is on November 3, which is 22 days away.