Elections Intelligence

Dan Ahlers

SDGovernor: G under a starred pediment
CHALLENGER Safe R Long shot
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Ahlers is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Ahlers at 3.6¢ against Rhoden's 98.3¢, up 2.5¢ since July 31. Rhoden leads 2.8 to 1 on cash.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Ahlers · Democratic contract
3.6¢
▲ 2.5¢since July 31

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Dan Ahlers by name.

Jul 3148 daily readings · high 5.9¢ · low 1.1¢Oct 12
Dan AhlersDemocratic
3.6¢
Larry RhodenRepublican · incumbent
98.3¢

9,361 traded · 7,220 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Ahlers v Rhoden

Metric by metric
Ahlers
Rhoden
3.6¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
98.3¢
$67.9K
RaisedState filings, through May 13
—
$59.2K
Cash on handState filings, through May 13
$169.6K
No office on file
Holds now
Governor of South Dakotasince 2025

The 2026 race

South Dakota Governor
Latest poll
Rhoden +30

Emerson College, July 13.

Prior result
R+26.8

2022 general election, won by Kristi Noem.

Fundraising
2.8 to 1

Cash on hand, May 13.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.