Elections Intelligence

Larry Rhoden

SDGovernor: G under a starred pediment
INCUMBENT Safe R Strong favorite
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Rhoden is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Rhoden at 98.3¢ against Ahlers's 3.6¢, up 4.1¢ since July 31. Rhoden leads 2.8 to 1 on cash.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Rhoden · Republican contract
98.3¢
▲ 4.1¢since July 31

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Larry Rhoden by name.

Jul 3148 daily readings · high 99.8¢ · low 94.2¢Oct 12
Larry RhodenRepublican · incumbent
98.3¢
Dan AhlersDemocratic
3.6¢

9,361 traded · 7,220 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Rhoden v Ahlers

Metric by metric
Rhoden
Ahlers
98.3¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
3.6¢
—
RaisedState filings, through May 13
$67.9K
$169.6K
Cash on handState filings, through May 13
$59.2K
Governor of South Dakotasince 2025
Holds now
No office on file

The 2026 race

South Dakota Governor
Latest poll
Rhoden +30

Emerson College, July 13.

Prior result
R+26.8

2022 general election, won by Kristi Noem.

Fundraising
2.8 to 1

Cash on hand, May 13.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.