Josh Shapiro
PAWhat the Signal reads
Safe D
Shapiro is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Shapiro at 97.2¢ against Garrity's 2.6¢, up 2.7¢ since July 31. The polling average has Shapiro ahead by 22.4 points, and Shapiro leads 7.2 to 1 in money raised.
The market
Shapiro · Democratic contract
97.2¢
▲ 2.7¢since July 31
This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Josh Shapiro by name.
697,108 traded · 613,194 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Shapiro v Garrity
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Pennsylvania GovernorPolling average
D+22.4
Average of 5 pollsters, September 22 to October 5.
Prior result
D+14.8
2022 general election, won by Josh Shapiro.
Fundraising
7.2 to 1
Raised, through September 14.