Elections Intelligence

Wes Moore

MDGovernor: G under a starred pediment
INCUMBENT Safe D Strong favorite
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Moore is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Moore at 98.5¢ against Cox's 2.7¢, up 2.5¢ since July 31. The polling average has Moore ahead by 27 points, and Moore leads 57 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Moore · Democratic contract
98.5¢
▲ 2.5¢since July 31

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Wes Moore by name.

Jul 3148 daily readings · high 98.5¢ · low 95.7¢Oct 12
Wes MooreDemocratic · incumbent
98.5¢
Dan CoxRepublican
2.7¢

60,620 traded · 53,407 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Moore v Cox

Metric by metric
Moore
Cox
98.5¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
2.7¢
$13.80M
RaisedState filings, through August 18
$241.7K
$6.52M
Cash on handState filings, through August 18
$136.1K
51%
Latest pollUniversity of Maryland · Sep 27
24%
Governor of Marylandsince 2023
Holds now
No office on file

The 2026 race

Maryland Governor
Polling average
D+27

Average of 2 pollsters, August 3 to September 27.

Prior result
D+32.4

2022 general election, won by Wes Moore.

Fundraising
57 to 1

Raised, through August 18.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.