Elections Intelligence

Dan Cox

MDGovernor: G under a starred pediment
CHALLENGER Safe D Long shot
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Cox is the Republican challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Cox at 2.7¢ against Moore's 98.5¢, down 2.8¢ since July 31. The polling average has Moore ahead by 27 points, and Moore leads 57 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Cox · Republican contract
2.7¢
▼ 2.8¢since July 31

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Dan Cox by name.

Jul 3148 daily readings · high 7¢ · low 2.7¢Oct 12
Dan CoxRepublican
2.7¢
Wes MooreDemocratic · incumbent
98.5¢

60,620 traded · 53,407 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Cox v Moore

Metric by metric
Cox
Moore
2.7¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
98.5¢
$241.7K
RaisedState filings, through August 18
$13.80M
$136.1K
Cash on handState filings, through August 18
$6.52M
24%
Latest pollUniversity of Maryland · Sep 27
51%
No office on file
Holds now
Governor of Marylandsince 2023

The 2026 race

Maryland Governor
Polling average
D+27

Average of 2 pollsters, August 3 to September 27.

Prior result
D+32.4

2022 general election, won by Wes Moore.

Fundraising
57 to 1

Raised, through August 18.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.