Darren Bailey
ILWhat the Signal reads
Safe D
Bailey is the Republican challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Bailey at 3¢ against Pritzker's 97.1¢, down 1.5¢ since July 31. The polling average has Pritzker ahead by 20 points, and Pritzker leads 12.1 to 1 in money raised.
The market
Bailey · Republican contract
3.0¢
▼ 1.5¢since July 31
This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Darren Bailey by name.
140,122 traded · 117,739 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Bailey v Pritzker
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Illinois GovernorPolling average
D+20
Average of 2 pollsters, November 24 to October 1.
Prior result
D+12.5
2022 general election, won by JB PritzkerJuliana Stratton.
Fundraising
12.1 to 1
Raised, through June 30.