Elections Intelligence

Ryan Fazio

CTGovernor: G under a starred pediment
CHALLENGER Safe D Long shot
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Fazio is the Republican challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Fazio at 4.6¢ against Lamont's 96.1¢, down 3.4¢ since July 31. The polling average has Lamont ahead by 13.7 points, and Lamont leads 9 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Fazio · Republican contract
4.6¢
▼ 3.4¢since July 31

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Ryan Fazio by name.

Jul 3148 daily readings · high 8¢ · low 3.1¢Oct 12
Ryan FazioRepublican
4.6¢
Ned LamontDemocratic · incumbent
96.1¢

46,593 traded · 39,152 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Fazio v Lamont

Metric by metric
Fazio
Lamont
4.6¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
96.1¢
$1.09M
RaisedState filings, through June 30 and August 4
$9.94M
$67.3K
Cash on handState filings, through June 30 and August 4
$673.2K
38%
Latest pollUNH · Sep 21
55%
No office on file
Holds now
Governor of Connecticutsince 2023

The 2026 race

Connecticut Governor
Polling average
D+13.7

Average of 3 pollsters, September 14 to September 21.

Prior result
D+12.9

2022 general election, won by Ned Lamont.

Fundraising
9 to 1

Raised, through August 4.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.