Elections Intelligence

Ned Lamont

CTGovernor: G under a starred pediment
INCUMBENT Safe D Strong favorite
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Lamont is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Lamont at 96.1¢ against Fazio's 4.6¢, up 3.4¢ since July 31. The polling average has Lamont ahead by 13.7 points, and Lamont leads 9 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Lamont · Democratic contract
96.1¢
▲ 3.4¢since July 31

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Ned Lamont by name.

Jul 3148 daily readings · high 99.9¢ · low 92.7¢Oct 12
Ned LamontDemocratic · incumbent
96.1¢
Ryan FazioRepublican
4.6¢

46,593 traded · 39,152 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Lamont v Fazio

Metric by metric
Lamont
Fazio
96.1¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
4.6¢
$9.94M
RaisedState filings, through June 30 and August 4
$1.09M
$673.2K
Cash on handState filings, through June 30 and August 4
$67.3K
55%
Latest pollUNH · Sep 21
38%
Governor of Connecticutsince 2023
Holds now
No office on file

The 2026 race

Connecticut Governor
Polling average
D+13.7

Average of 3 pollsters, September 14 to September 21.

Prior result
D+12.9

2022 general election, won by Ned Lamont.

Fundraising
9 to 1

Raised, through August 4.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.