Elections Intelligence

John Sununu

NHU.S. Senate S architectural icon
CHALLENGER Lean D to Likely D Underdog
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What the Signal reads

Likely D

Sununu is the Republican nominee for an open seat the Signal rates Likely D. The market has Sununu at 11¢ against Pappas's 90¢, down 4¢ since July 31. The polling average has Pappas ahead by 6.8 points, and Pappas leads 3.7 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Sununu · Republican contract
11.0¢
▼ 4.0¢since July 31

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on John Sununu by name.

Jul 3148 daily readings · high 19¢ · low 11¢Oct 12
John SununuRepublican
11.0¢
Chris PappasDemocratic
90.0¢

1,927,967 traded · 1,118,398 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Sununu v Pappas

Metric by metric
Sununu
Pappas
11.0¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
90.0¢
$4.12M
RaisedFEC, through August 19
$15.38M
$3.02M
Cash on handFEC, through August 19
$4.25M
43%
Latest pollYouGov · Oct 5
51%
No office on file
Holds now
U.S. Representativesince 2019

The 2026 race

New Hampshire U.S. Senate
Polling average
D+6.8

Average of 7 pollsters, September 17 to October 5.

Prior result
D+15.7

2020 general election, won by Jeanne Shaheen.

Fundraising
3.7 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through August 19.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.