Elections Intelligence

Jennifer L. McClellan

VA-4U.S. House H architectural icon
INCUMBENT Safe D Strong favorite
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Safe D

McClellan is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has McClellan at 99.3¢ against Murray's 3¢, up 2.3¢ since August 3.

The market

Kalshi ↗
McClellan · Democratic contract
99.3¢
▲ 2.3¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Jennifer L. McClellan by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 99.7¢ · low 97¢Oct 12
Jennifer L. McClellanDemocratic · incumbent
99.3¢
Robert P. "Family Man" Murray, Jr.Republican
3.0¢

9,505 traded · 3,882 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

McClellan v Murray

Metric by metric
McClellan
Murray
99.3¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
3.0¢
$1.14M
RaisedFEC, through July 15
No total for Robert P. "Family Man" Murray, Jr.: no report covering this period is on file with the Federal Election Commission.
$197.4K
Cash on handFEC, through July 15
—
U.S. Representativesince 2023
Holds now
No office on file

The 2026 race

Virginia 4th District
Prior result
D+34.9

2024 general election, won by Jennifer L. McClellan.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.