Elections Intelligence

Charles J. "Chuck" Fleischmann

TN-3U.S. House H architectural icon
INCUMBENT Safe R Strong favorite
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Safe R

Fleischmann is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market has Fleischmann at 97.6¢ against Golladay's 4.6¢, up 3.6¢ since August 3. Fleischmann leads 41.9 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Fleischmann · Republican contract
97.6¢
▲ 3.6¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Charles J. "Chuck" Fleischmann by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 98¢ · low 94¢Oct 12
Charles J. "Chuck" FleischmannRepublican · incumbent
97.6¢
Anna GolladayDemocratic
4.6¢

14,484 traded · 7,077 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Fleischmann v Golladay

Metric by metric
Fleischmann
Golladay
97.6¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
4.6¢
$2.33M
RaisedFEC, through July 17
$55.6K
$4.84M
Cash on handFEC, through July 17
$33.9K
U.S. Representativesince 2011
Holds now
No office on file

The 2026 race

Tennessee 3rd District
Prior result
R+38.2

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Charles J. "Chuck" Fleischmann.

Fundraising
41.9 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 17.

THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWNR+35.9 → R+35.7

Tennessee redrew its congressional map in the middle of the decade through HB 7003, signed on May 7, 2026. The plan splits Shelby County, home to Memphis, among the 5th, 8th and 9th districts. Its partisan lean barely changes (Trump +35.9 to Trump +35.7 in the 2024 presidential vote).

The record this is read from ↗

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.