Elections Intelligence

Richard E. Neal

MA-1U.S. House H architectural icon
INCUMBENT Safe D Strong favorite
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Neal is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Neal at 98.3¢, down 0.9¢ since August 3.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Neal · Democratic contract
98.3¢
▼ 0.9¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Richard E. Neal by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 99.9¢ · low 92.6¢Oct 12
Richard E. NealDemocratic · incumbent
98.3¢
Republican lineNo candidate is named on this contract.
5.6¢

1,559 traded · 1,133 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

The 2026 race

Massachusetts 1st District
Prior result
Neal +25.1

Neal won 62.4% to 37.3% over Nadia Milleron (independent) (2024).

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.