Elections Intelligence

Troy A. Carter

LA-2U.S. House H architectural icon
INCUMBENT Safe D Strong favorite
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Carter is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market prices a Democratic hold of the seat at 99.6¢, a price on the party and not on Carter.

The market

Kalshi ↗

No price is quoted on this candidate: no contract on this candidate in the market.

Democratic lineNo candidate is named on this contract.
99.6¢
Republican lineNo candidate is named on this contract.
1.6¢
Troy A. CarterDemocratic
no contract on this candidate in the market
Lisa BallayLibertarian
no contract on this candidate in the market
Walter "Rocky" BeachNP
no contract on this candidate in the market
Renada CollinsNP
no contract on this candidate in the market
Peter WilliamsRepublican
no contract on this candidate in the market

32,150 traded · 8,429 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Carter v Ballay

Metric by metric
Carter
Ballay
$1.41M
RaisedFEC, through July 18
No filing on file for Lisa Ballay with the Federal Election Commission.
$382.8K
Cash on handFEC, through July 18
—
U.S. Representativesince 2021
Holds now
No office on file

The 2026 race

Louisiana 2nd District
Prior result
D+46.7

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Troy A. Carter.

THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWND+31.4 → D+47.4

Louisiana redrew its map after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the previous one in Louisiana v. Callais on April 29, 2026. The new plan (SB 121) was signed on May 29, 2026. It becomes much more Democratic, going from Harris +31.4 to Harris +47.4 in the 2024 presidential vote.

The record this is read from ↗

The open primary is on November 3, which is 22 days away. If no one tops 50%, the top two meet on December 12.