Steve Scalise
LA-1What the Signal reads
Safe R
Scalise is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe R. The market prices a Republican hold of the seat at 97.7¢, a price on the party and not on Scalise.
The market
No price is quoted on this candidate: no contract on this candidate in the market.
4,196 traded · 2,402 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Scalise v Arrington
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Louisiana 1st DistrictPrior result
R+42.8
2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Steve Scalise.
THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWNR+37.9 → R+38.2
Louisiana redrew its map after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the previous one in Louisiana v. Callais on April 29, 2026. The new plan (SB 121) was signed on May 29, 2026. Its partisan lean barely changes (Trump +37.9 to Trump +38.2 in the 2024 presidential vote).