Jamie Joyce
CA-12Every candidate on the November ballot is a Democrat, so the seat cannot change party. The FTP Race Signal reads the seat; the Kalshi figure is Joyce's own contract.
What the Signal reads
Safe D
Joyce is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Joyce at 4¢ against Simon's 97¢, unchanged since August 3. Simon leads 46.3 to 1 in money raised.
The market
Joyce · Democratic contract
4.0¢
Unchangedsince August 3
7,372 traded · 4,234 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Joyce v Simon
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
California 12th DistrictPrior result
65.4 to 34.6
Simon won 65.4% to 34.6% over another Democrat (2024).
Fundraising
46.3 to 1
Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.