Sarah McBride · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

McBride is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has McBride at 99.4¢ against Arminio's 1.2¢, up 8.4¢ since August 3. McBride leads 762.8 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

McBride · Democratic contract

99.4¢

▲ 8.4¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Sarah McBride by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 99.9¢ · low 91¢Oct 12

Sarah McBrideDemocratic · incumbent

99.4¢

Joseph "Dr. Joe" ArminioRepublican

1.2¢

2,017 traded · 1,937 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

McBride v Arminio

Metric by metric

McBride

Arminio

99.4¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

1.2¢

$5.06M

RaisedFEC, through August 26

$6.6K

$2.70M

Cash on handFEC, through August 26

$2.2K

U.S. Representativesince 2025

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Delaware At-Large District

Prior result

D+15.7

2024 general election, won by Sarah McBride.

Fundraising

762.8 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through August 26.