Joseph "Dr. Joe" Arminio · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Arminio is the Republican challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Arminio at 1.2¢ against McBride's 99.4¢, down 1.3¢ since August 3. McBride leads 762.8 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Arminio · Republican contract

1.2¢

▼ 1.3¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Joseph "Dr. Joe" Arminio by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 7.2¢ · low 1.2¢Oct 12

Joseph "Dr. Joe" ArminioRepublican

1.2¢

Sarah McBrideDemocratic · incumbent

99.4¢

2,017 traded · 1,937 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Arminio v McBride

Metric by metric

Arminio

McBride

1.2¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

99.4¢

$6.6K

RaisedFEC, through August 26

$5.06M

$2.2K

Cash on handFEC, through August 26

$2.70M

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2025

The 2026 race

Delaware At-Large District

Prior result

D+15.7

2024 general election, won by Sarah McBride.

Fundraising

762.8 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through August 26.