Maxine Waters · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Waters is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Waters at 98.3¢ against Morales's 3.5¢, up 1¢ since August 3.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Waters · Democratic contract

98.3¢

▲ 1.0¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Maxine Waters by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 99.9¢ · low 96.2¢Oct 12

Maxine WatersDemocratic · incumbent

98.3¢

Cristian MoralesRepublican

3.5¢

1,986 traded · 1,912 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Waters v Morales

Metric by metric

Waters

Morales

98.3¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

3.5¢

$863.7K

RaisedFEC, through June 30

No total for Cristian Morales: no report covering this period is on file with the Federal Election Commission.

$269.7K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

—

U.S. Representativesince 1991

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

California 43rd District

Prior result

D+50.1

2024 general election, won by Maxine Waters.