Mark Takano · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Takano is the Democratic incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Takano at 98.9¢ against Manos's 3.2¢, up 6.5¢ since August 3.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Takano · Democratic contract

98.9¢

▲ 6.5¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Mark Takano by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 99.9¢ · low 92.4¢Oct 12

Mark TakanoDemocratic · incumbent

98.9¢

Steve ManosRepublican

3.2¢

4,097 traded · 2,890 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Takano v Manos

Metric by metric

Takano

Manos

98.9¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

3.2¢

$893.8K

RaisedFEC, through June 30

No total for Steve Manos: no report covering this period is on file with the Federal Election Commission.

$186.2K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

—

U.S. Representativesince 2013

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

California 39th District

Prior result

D+13.4

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Mark Takano.

THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWND+9.7 → D+9.5

California voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. Its partisan lean barely changes (Harris +9.7 to Harris +9.5 in the 2024 presidential vote).

The record this is read from ↗